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Last October, deep in Idaho鈥檚 most remote forest 鈥� the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness 鈥� 麻豆视频入口在线观看 Professor Jaap Vos was leading students through a hands-on learning experience.

They holed up for three weeks of studies. Only a U.S. Postal Service plane had access to U of I鈥檚 Taylor Research Center.

But in the outside world, the rural planning professor鈥檚 work wasn鈥檛 slowing down. Vos鈥� expertise on Idaho鈥檚 population transformations was in such high demand that a top state agency asked him to fly out to present his findings.

Vos recently found that one in four people in Idaho鈥檚 growing population of 1.8 million moved to the state in the past 10 years and discovered that the influx of new residents coincided with a steady departure of existing residents.

So, after working with students on how Idaho鈥檚 population change has influenced tourism and recreation, Vos boarded that postal service plane midway through the excursion, flew to Twin Falls, and presented to a room full of community planners and business leaders eager to listen at the Idaho Conference on Recreation and Tourism.

鈥淲e鈥檙e not in the middle of nowhere anymore,鈥� Vos said in an interview. 鈥淲e鈥檝e been discovered.鈥�

Planning the Future

While the U of I professor has aided community planners for years, attention to Vos鈥� work grew after his recent research used an unusual data source to make sense of Idaho鈥檚 fast-changing demographics. He found that nearly half-a-million people moved to Idaho in the past decade, but nearly 300,000 residents left during the same period.

Idaho grew substantially but, more importantly, it underwent massive change, Vos stresses.

“We鈥檙e not in the middle of nowhere anymore. We鈥檝e been discovered..”

— Jaap Vos, Professor of Planning and Natural Resources

To reach these conclusions, Vos dug into an untapped source of information: driver鈥檚 licenses. Because new Idaho residents must surrender their previous state鈥檚 driver鈥檚 license within 90 days of moving and then register their vehicle at their new addresses, he thought the data could offer a real-time glimpse into Idaho鈥檚 changing demographics.

Researching how communities are changing is complicated. Scientists鈥� focused hypotheses and research questions don鈥檛 fit when predicting the future with limited data, Vos said. The environments that he鈥檚 searching for answers in are difficult to measure.

鈥淢y research is not published in peer-reviewed journals, but it is very much used by decision-makers,鈥� Vos said.

In planning, shortcomings are felt community-wide. If population data is off, infrastructure might not fit the community鈥檚 needs. People could be stuck in rush hour traffic longer. Schools might not be able to serve the influx of new children.

State and local leaders say Vos鈥� research provides critical insights into Idaho鈥檚 population shifts, helping them answer difficult questions that the census data cannot answer.

To date, at the Idaho Department of Commerce, we have not seen a more in-depth approach to the population trends in Idaho,鈥� Idaho Department of Commerce Director Tom Kealey said.

The research is not Vos鈥� first foray into helping state leaders make sense of demographic change. For years, Idaho鈥檚 community planners have recognized the U of I professor as a forward-thinking researcher who regularly gathers local planners to talk through issues and offer advice, said Owyhee County Planning Director Mary Huff.

Huff first met Vos a decade ago. She said he has consistently encouraged planners to dig deep in their data, find its errors and what it really says.

Growing, or Changing?

Vos argues that understanding change is more relevant than understanding growth. Past census data shows Idaho is one of the nation鈥檚 fastest-growing states. Looking deeper, Vos said, at who Idahoans are now, what they want and how they live, will provide valuable insight into how areas are changing, what residents need and how to shape communities to reflect local values.

In Owyhee County, where the largest town is home to less than 5,000 people, locals are feeling the effects of Idaho鈥檚 dramatic population change. Huff said it鈥檚 more complicated than the common complaint that Californians are moving to Idaho. She said data from Vos and others suggests that as more people flood into Idaho from other states, Treasure Valley residents are spreading out into rural communities.

鈥淛aap鈥檚 data helped show that we were also having a lot of movement within the state as people from more populated areas were looking to move farther out into suburbs or rural places to get back a bit of the slower Idaho they once knew,鈥� Huff said.

Data also helps cut through the noise of planning, a field that relies on a mix of public opinion, research and data to tease out the truth.

In creating Owyhee鈥檚 development plan years earlier, locals stressed retaining the county鈥檚 agricultural roots, with farmland surrounding neighborhoods and business areas. But the wave of developers looking to set up shop in the area signaled something different: Locals want more houses on that land, not farms.

So, she turned back to the locals. Though it some of the rural county鈥檚 population had changed, they largely wanted to preserve the community鈥檚 farming roots.

鈥淜now who you are and trust that,鈥� she said.

In community planning, leaders don鈥檛 have time to wait to physically see changes happen before making decisions. Waiting too long might mean the attributes locals love about an area 鈥� sprawling green parks, crop fields or quaint neighborhoods and business sectors 鈥� could vanish.

Once a new building goes up, community character changes.

Planning is about being deliberate about change, Vos said. To him and others, community planning is about asking neighbors and leaders what they cherish about their community and what they hope it will become.

鈥淲e鈥檙e really trying to be proactive. In reality, since we have such little control, we often end up being more reactive in the way that we deal with cities 鈥� all of a sudden there鈥檚 growth, and we just respond to the growth,鈥� Vos said. 鈥淏ut in the ideal world, the community has already made a comprehensive plan. The vision is already there. Everything is written down. So now, we just follow the plan.鈥�

Article and photos by Kyle Pfannenstiel, University Communications and Marketing.

Published in the Fall 2023 issue of Here We Have Idaho.